History tells us that being a rested home team in this round is a remarkable advantage.
Since 1980, home teams in this round are 76-24 SU and 57-40-3 ATS. Of the last 56 teams that played in the Super Bowl, 46 of them were these "rested home teams". That means a significant historical edge to Baltimore, San Diego, New Orleans and Chicago.
It certainly does not mean all the road teams are doomed. But one must understand the kind of deep history "bummer" these sides face. Going back 28 years you get these numbers from the Gold Sheet.
In this round:
• favorites SU are 86-33 (three games were "pick'em")
• favorites are 64-52-3 ATS
• favorites of 3.5-6.5 points are 22-16-1
• favorites of 7-9.5 points are 23-15
• favorites of 10-13.5 points are 9-6
These games involving the supposed eight best are often not close. 56 of the last 120 "quarterfinals" have been decided by 14 points or more. In short, this is often a blowout weekend.
There are no general "over/under" trends this weekend.
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